Navigating The Dunning-Kruger Effect

Why is it that those who are the worst at something seem to think they’re the best?

Ever wondered why Nigel always knows more about recruitment than you because he’s “been through an interview or two in his time”…?

… or why Doris reckons she’s the font of all knowledge on succession planning because she “once managed her village netball team which needed a new captain and goal-attack in 2002”…?

But, of course Doris – over to you…!

Let me introduce you to a rather funny little cognitive bias known as the Dunning-Kruger Effect.

What is the Dunning Kruger Effect?

In simple terms it’s the combination of poor self-awareness and lower cognitive ability resulting in a type of ‘blindness’ that leads to an overestimation of ones knowledge and skills.

Or as the rather brilliant John Cleese once defined it,

“the challenge of knowing if one is really, really stupid,”

The Revelations of Dunning and Kruger

In 1999, professors of psychology at Cornell University, David Dunning and Justin Kruger, set out to investigate whether incompetent individuals were conscious of their own incompetence.

Their interest was piqued by the rather ‘curious’ case of McArthur Wheeler, a bank robber in Pittsburgh in 1995, who attempted to disguise himself with lemon juice (believing it would make him invisible to security cameras).

Yep, they live among us people!

The weird nature of Wheeler’s arrest caught their attention, and led them to investigate and understand the strange level of confidence displayed by someone facing such, shall we say, ill-fated circumstances.

And in 1999 they coined the concept of the “Dunning-Kruger effect” in their study, “Unskilled and Unaware of It”, which compared actual vs perceived skill levels.

“The problem with the world is that the intelligent people are full of doubt, while stupid ones are full of confidence.”

(Charles Bukowski)

Why It Occurs

The Dunning-Kruger effect can be explained by what they call a “dual burden”.

In simple terms, the ability to accurately assess one’s competence requires a certain level of competence itself.

This means that incompetent individuals not only lack the necessary skills to do a given task, but their ineptitude also impairs their ability to recognise their own shortcomings..

Meaning… the very skills and knowledge required to excel at a task are the same qualities needed to recognise one’s incompetence.

Oooof!

This means that they tend to:

Overestimate their skill levels

Fail to recognise the genuine skill and expertise of others

Fail to acknowledge their own mistakes

Make poor decisions

Resist feedback

Form attitudes, beliefs and opinions based on misinformation

“The first rule of the Dunning-Kruger club is that you don’t know you’re a member of the Dunning-Kruger club.”

(David Dunning)

Dunning-Kruger Effect vs Imposter Syndrome

Imposter syndrome and the Dunning-Kruger effect are two different ways people see themselves and their abilities.

Imposter Syndrome

You feel like you’re faking it and doubt your own success

You attribute achievements to luck or external factors, not your skills

You live with the constant fear of being exposed as a fraud

Check out our blog on Slaying Your Imposter

Dunning-Kruger Effect

You think you’re a pro even when you’re not

You have limited skills, but you’re overly confident in your abilities

You consistently miss the memo that you might need to upskill a bit

“When we lack the knowledge and skills to achieve excellence, we sometimes lack the knowledge and skills to judge excellence.”

(Adam Grant)

Top Tips for HR Professionals

Motivate employees to assess their own levels of competence and ask for regular constructive feedback and training

Identify skills gaps and design effective talent development strategies to create a culture of continuous learning

Get good at noticing red flags in CVs! There’s a real danger of having unqualified individuals in the wrong jobs or leadership positions (I’m not saying a word!)